I feel this might be the case. If we can rule out the FDA and we get our own reg's requiring X to produce e liquid then I see the big million dollar companies being the big boys. Cuttwood - Coors, Johnson Creek - Miller ect
Then we will have the little craft mixers bring the seasonal and different more complex liquids
BUT HERES THE TWIST.......
The craft e liquid will be CHEAPER!
I don't know. This just seems to be the way it will go. Also we are the home brewers!
Ever notice how many "small batch craft brewers" are owned and distributed by Big Beer?
http://www.mensjournal.com/food-drink/drinks/is-that-really-craft-beer-21-surprising-corporate-brewers-20150923
http://coolmaterial.com/feature/9-craft-beers-you-didnt-know-werent-craft-beers/
This was what I was going to say.
There is no way to have a "small batch craft brewer" at the cost just to get in the league.
That's what a lot of folks don't get. If you're selling a million bottles a month, you can afford marketing, shelf placement at the branded national gas stations, etc.
Small craft e-liquid "brewers" just don't have the profit in the overhead to compete at that level -- and personally I don't think I'd want to be at that level anyway.
There's more intimate contact when you sell fewer than 500 bottles a day, although some of the discount vendors on ECR are crushing those numbers and still offering the perception of intimacy (hiring in-house invoice illustrators, rotating fake customer service rep names on outsourced chat, etc).
I was going to be so disappointed to see my absolute favorite brewery listed there. No disappointment. Still happy.
Don't break my heart here! Please I don't want to click these links!
FUUUUUCK! Blue Moon isn't a craft beer! FML. Time to find a new Wheat Ale..... Abdada. You are a source of all things good and all things evil!
Little craft mixers wont exist with the FDA ruling. No point in thinking about hypotheticals at this point.
Nothing to do but make your voice heard or you will be smoking Blu with menthol flavoring or basic cherry out of a un-modifiable device.
You are so painfully right. Your comment immediately made me think of this article: This is What the Future of Vaping Will Look Like.
That article is pretty dead on imo.
There might be a few companies like Cuttwood/Suicide Bunny that can survive the FDAs approval pricing and put out products that vapers like us would want.
I just am slightly saddened that people like OP are misinformed even when so invested in the vaping community. All the good things he/they might think happen when this ruling takes effect are all nonsense.
No craft, no small business, no innovation, no customization, no fun...nothing but a overpriced and underperforming garbage approved by the FDA.
Sorry, this new ruling is very frustrating and I kind of went on a rant there. =/
The "big boys" won't be vaping companies. If the industry survives, those in business will be owned by tobacco or pharmaceutical corporations, or foreign companies (for example, Dekang).
Estimates are that filing for approval for 1 flavor, at 1 nicotine strength, at 1 specific PG/VG ratio, will cost approximately $1M. That's based on the expense of lawyers' billable hours, filings, and such. And there's no guarantee that any application will be approved. Ask the tobacco industry how that goes--one approval since 2007, and the application was 100K pages long.
So we'll just stipulate that selection will obviously be more limited. We can suppose there will be but one ratio offered, and nicotine levels will be limited to just a few like 3, 6, and 12mg/mL. The FDA's regs are a bit contradictory on whether 0mg/mL is covered or not, but we'll just ignore it for this exercise.
We'll consider just the 3 companies listed so far in this thread, and another bigger company: Cuttwood, Johnson Creek, Suicide Bunny, and Durasmoke. Gotta supply tootlepuffers as well as cloud chasers in our new market.
One flavor will cost ~$3M, based on 3 nic levels offered. Cuttwood makes 6 ($18M), Johnson Creek makes 37 ($111M), Suicide Bunny makes 13 ($39M), and Durasmoke makes 146 ($438M). That's a total cost, if no flavors were dropped, of $606M for just those 4 companies.
The entire US vaping industry is worth ~$3.5B, including hardware and 7K+ vape shops. For those 4 companies to go on relatively close to as they are would cost 18% of the entire industry's value.
Annual revenues of all 4 companies together do not even meet Cuttwood's hypothetical expense, and that's the smallest of the 4.
This is a small start-up industry compared to most other industries. The "big boys" in this industry are little craft mixers compared to the food, beverage, tobacco, and pharmaceutical industries.
If the FDA regs are effected as they stand, there's little chance any "vaping" company will remain. I expect there will be a feeding frenzy over the next 2 years, as major conglomerates start buying up e-liquid & hardware companies. Unless the regs change, that may be the only way this industry continues, unfortunately.
guys, guys, guys, even with the FDA ruling, there is no reason that ALL eliquid companies can't continue selling, and without even caring about the FDA ruling.
They can simply sell the premixed concentrates and customers will have to buy their own VG/PG and nicotine to use. Basically the industry can continue as DIY.
